Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.98 – 85.06

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.5 ±12.7

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 35.12Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 21.85Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -10.99Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.9 ±10.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 34.1Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.68Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 55.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5012, 6934, 8521

/ 100 compat

Projected

46 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 6934, 8521

Auto

22.0 47%

Teleop

10.1 22%

Endgame

14.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 5500, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 5500, 3512

Auto

30.1 37%

Teleop

24.1 29%

Endgame

28.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 20–111
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.5Season APEX442.9

22Auto30.1

10.1Teleop24.1

14.8Endgame28.1

100Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	7	63
endgame	24	21
foul	0	0
total	48	108

Result

Final score

48 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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