Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.57 – 152.1

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±12.4

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -3.38Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 6.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 96.8Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.2 ±9.3

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 91.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 33.75Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 27.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5869, 22, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5869, 22, 3512

Auto

21.7 22%

Teleop

59.0 61%

Endgame

16.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 3925, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 3925, 11024

Auto

45.0 30%

Teleop

76.4 51%

Endgame

28.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 70–182
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.3Season APEX532.2

21.7Auto45

59Teleop76.4

16.3Endgame28.4

23Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	33
teleop	67	68
endgame	10	55
foul	0	5
total	112	161

Result

Final score

112 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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