Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.98 – 76.76

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 97.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699.8 ±9.9

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 45.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 50.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 79.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±11.7

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 32.01Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.52Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 27.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6560, 1538, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6560, 1538, 599

Auto

40.3 23%

Teleop

125.7 72%

Endgame

8.5 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 5869, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 5869, 5136

Auto

24.4 33%

Teleop

41.3 57%

Endgame

7.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.2
Score range: 51–202
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699.8Season APEX318.7

40.3Auto24.4

125.7Teleop41.3

8.5Endgame7.3

95Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	30
teleop	257	24
endgame	58	33
foul	0	5
total	355	92

Result

Final score

355 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 97.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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