Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.84 – 132.49

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.9 ±10.5

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 127.37Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 78.24Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -4.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±12.2

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 36.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 46.34Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 50.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 589, 7323

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 589, 7323

Auto

60.8 30%

Teleop

117.3 59%

Endgame

21.6 11%

Strengths

· 973 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6060, 10936, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 10936, 1388

Auto

29.0 22%

Teleop

78.3 59%

Endgame

25.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.8pts

Blue projected score132.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.4
Score range: 107–226
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.9Season APEX316

60.8Auto29

117.3Teleop78.3

21.6Endgame25.2

30Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	16
teleop	32	41
endgame	18	17
foul	0	5
total	104	79

Result

Final score

104 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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