Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.64 – 127.43

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±11.2

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 90.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -14.97Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 40.53Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.5 ±11.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 98.38Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 16.02Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 13.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3512, 8521, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3512, 8521, 3925

Auto

17.8 15%

Teleop

70.3 61%

Endgame

27.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 5012, 9520

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6036, 5012, 9520

Auto

46.9 39%

Teleop

28.1 23%

Endgame

45.3 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.6pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 91–152
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.5Season APEX519.5

17.8Auto46.9

70.3Teleop28.1

27Endgame45.3

70Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	77
teleop	35	110
endgame	11	91
foul	0	0
total	85	278

Result

Final score

85 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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