Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.62 – 42.64

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.3 ±11.2

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 100.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 70.48Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 45.03Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±12.8

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 5.46Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 43.25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX -6.07Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 589, 1538, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 589, 1538, 10936

Auto

56.1 26%

Teleop

106.4 50%

Endgame

52.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6764, 1160, 691

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6764, 1160, 691

Auto

-8.5 0%

Teleop

37.2 93%

Endgame

11.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.6pts

Blue projected score42.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173
Score range: 19–240
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.3Season APEX216.9

56.1Auto-8.5

106.4Teleop37.2

52.1Endgame11.1

23Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	21
teleop	107	58
endgame	43	59
foul	0	0
total	186	138

Result

Final score

186 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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