Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.59 – 112.03

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±11.1

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 41.3Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -2.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 60.02Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±11.7

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 45.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 28.01Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 39.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 7323, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 7323, 6560

Auto

5.6 6%

Teleop

64.7 65%

Endgame

29.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5136, 3309, 4711

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5136, 3309, 4711

Auto

33.9 32%

Teleop

44.1 42%

Endgame

26.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.6pts

Blue projected score112pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 75–136
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.1Season APEX313.2

5.6Auto33.9

64.7Teleop44.1

29.2Endgame26.9

89Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	15
teleop	29	51
endgame	11	25
foul	0	0
total	68	91

Result

Final score

68 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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