Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.37 – 149.65

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.6 ±11.2

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 12.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 49.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 115.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±11.7

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.06Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 91.64Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 31.95Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 22, 1388, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 22, 1388, 973

Auto

47.2 27%

Teleop

127.5 73%

Endgame

-0.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5500, 7415, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5500, 7415, 5285

Auto

31.6 21%

Teleop

91.1 62%

Endgame

25.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.4pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 126–201
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.6Season APEX398.1

47.2Auto31.6

127.5Teleop91.1

-0.4Endgame25.2

90Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	12
teleop	112	79
endgame	3	26
foul	5	0
total	177	117

Result

Final score

177 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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