Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.05 – 143.71

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.7 ±11.2

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 22.59Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 132.8Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 71.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±12.4

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 22.87Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 23.95Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 96.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10936, 6036, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10936, 6036, 5136

Auto

68.4 31%

Teleop

101.6 46%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8533, 691, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 691, 1538

Auto

19.0 14%

Teleop

76.5 54%

Endgame

45.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.3
Score range: 114–257
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.7Season APEX409.7

68.4Auto19

101.6Teleop76.5

50.1Endgame45

13Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	18
teleop	58	38
endgame	47	5
foul	15	0
total	201	61

Result

Final score

201 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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