Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.23 – 80.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461 ±10.5

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 57.89Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 35.05Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -14.71Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.8 ±11.7

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 23.91Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 63.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -7.02Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 6060, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 6060, 192

Auto

34.6 47%

Teleop

19.2 26%

Endgame

19.4 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6934, 3501, 7327

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6934, 3501, 7327

Auto

14.6 17%

Teleop

50.0 59%

Endgame

20.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.2pts

Blue projected score80.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.6
Score range: 54–105
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461Season APEX420.8

34.6Auto14.6

19.2Teleop50

19.4Endgame20.3

37Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	30
teleop	57	25
endgame	47	26
foul	0	0
total	137	81

Result

Final score

137 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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