Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.69 – 337.09

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 495

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.7 ±13.3

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 14.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -8.83Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 2.99Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 940.4 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 199.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 70.3Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 67.72Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5869, 6764, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5869, 6764, 5012

Auto

8.9 77%

Teleop

-4.7 0%

Endgame

7.3 63%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4414, 6036, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 6036, 589

Auto

73.0 22%

Teleop

199.1 61%

Endgame

54.6 17%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.7pts

Blue projected score337.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -328.4
Score range: -14–360
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.7Season APEX940.4

8.9Auto73

-4.7Teleop199.1

7.3Endgame54.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	103
teleop	20	273
endgame	12	119
foul	10	0
total	62	495

Result

Final score

62 – 495

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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