Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.76 – 116.48

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.5 ±9.9

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 17.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 110.38Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 1.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.7 ±12.4

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 38.07Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 10.98Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 67.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6060, 973, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 973, 11024

Auto

29.9 24%

Teleop

76.1 60%

Endgame

20.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9520, 1661, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9520, 1661, 1538

Auto

13.8 12%

Teleop

91.7 80%

Endgame

9.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.8pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 92–153
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.5Season APEX447.7

29.9Auto13.8

76.1Teleop91.7

20.9Endgame9.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	31
teleop	130	26
endgame	40	8
foul	5	0
total	246	65

Result

Final score

246 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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