Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
81.58 – 61.76
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
62 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 19.4 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±13.3
Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 50.2Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 29Event APEX 1.95Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 29.43Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -7.74Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 111Event APEX 40.07Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 90Event APEX 29.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6934, 6764, 5500
54
/ 100 compatProjected
81.6 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6934, 6764, 5500
Auto
16.8 21%
Teleop
39.0 49%
Endgame
24.5 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8533, 6560, 3309
49
/ 100 compatProjected
61.8 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8533, 6560, 3309
Auto
15.6 26%
Teleop
27.9 46%
Endgame
17.6 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score81.6pts
Blue projected score61.8pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.8
- Score range
- 38–106
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
166.4Season APEX264.8
16.8Auto15.6
39Teleop27.9
24.5Endgame17.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 17 |
| teleop | 30 | 31 |
| endgame | 14 | 33 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 62 | 81 |
Result
Final score
62 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 19.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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