Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.42 – 78.03

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.9 ±11.2

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -8.09Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 75.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 12.07Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.9 ±12.7

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 12.24Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 48.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 17.29Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 192, 3501, 1661

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 3501, 1661

Auto

21.8 29%

Teleop

32.5 44%

Endgame

20.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9520, 6560, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9520, 6560, 5285

Auto

19.9 25%

Teleop

42.6 53%

Endgame

17.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.4pts

Blue projected score78pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.4
Score range: 48–109
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 169.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.9Season APEX271.9

21.8Auto19.9

32.5Teleop42.6

20.2Endgame17.8

8Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	18
teleop	16	79
endgame	4	34
foul	0	0
total	31	131

Result

Final score

31 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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