Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.26 – 234.78

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

540 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 922.1 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 148.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 28.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 311.64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 732.6 ±9.3

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -8.6Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 110.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 133.22Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 589, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 589, 4414

Auto

107.4 22%

Teleop

278.8 57%

Endgame

102.7 21%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 192, 7415, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 7415, 6036

Auto

62.0 27%

Teleop

123.5 54%

Endgame

45.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score489.3pts

Blue projected score234.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.5
Score range: 206–518
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 772 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

922.1Season APEX732.6

107.4Auto62

278.8Teleop123.5

102.7Endgame45

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	78
teleop	278	124
endgame	134	30
foul	0	0
total	540	232

Result

Final score

540 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Match videos

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