CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.24 – 156.19

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 10.43Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 58.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 83.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 26.13Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 82.73Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 47.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6814, 6418, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 6418, 6962

Auto

30.2 21%

Teleop

81.1 57%

Endgame

30.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 8048, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 8048, 115

Auto

26.7 18%

Teleop

88.4 60%

Endgame

32.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.2pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.9
Score range: 118–191
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 192.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.8Season APEX397.6

30.2Auto26.7

81.1Teleop88.4

30Endgame32.5

32Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	26
teleop	118	67
endgame	31	24
foul	0	5
total	182	122

Result

Final score

182 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 31.5 pts

Match videos

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