CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.99 – 295

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.3 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 24.5Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 139.29Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 149.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.5 ±9.9

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 123.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 139.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 3256, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3256, 581

Auto

54.9 18%

Teleop

182.3 60%

Endgame

67.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1351, 5026, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

295 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 5026, 972

Auto

52.4 19%

Teleop

160.6 57%

Endgame

69.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score295pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18
Score range: 261–347
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 190.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.3Season APEX626.5

54.9Auto52.4

182.3Teleop160.6

67.6Endgame69.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	41
teleop	178	177
endgame	110	73
foul	10	15
total	388	306

Result

Final score

388 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 43 pts

Match videos

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