CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

607.15 – 142.4

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

725 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 999.3 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 16.74Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 363.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 227.2Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 7.43Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 55.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 79.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 254, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

607.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 254, 9470

Auto

123.6 21%

Teleop

332.2 56%

Endgame

142.2 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 6418, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 6418, 6962

Auto

28.1 22%

Teleop

76.5 59%

Endgame

25.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score607.2pts

Blue projected score142.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 464.8
Score range: 108–641
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 941 vs event baseline 186.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

999.3Season APEX422.8

123.6Auto28.1

332.2Teleop76.5

142.2Endgame25.4

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	151	43
teleop	420	108
endgame	144	55
foul	10	10
total	725	216

Result

Final score

725 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Match videos

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