CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.07 – 173.22

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 106.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.74Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 77.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 41.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.8 ±11.1

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 35.6Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 43.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 94.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1700, 8048, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 8048, 115

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

77.0 58%

Endgame

27.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 100, 2854, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 2854, 6238

Auto

30.2 18%

Teleop

101.8 61%

Endgame

34.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.1pts

Blue projected score173.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.2
Score range: 106–207
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 187.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.6Season APEX494.8

27.2Auto30.2

77Teleop101.8

27.6Endgame34.6

25Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	149	28
endgame	59	15
foul	10	5
total	242	62

Result

Final score

242 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 106.6 pts

Match videos

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