CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.49 – 129.77

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.3 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 21.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 135.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 146.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 18.08Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 74.59Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 37.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 3256, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3256, 581

Auto

48.2 16%

Teleop

169.8 58%

Endgame

76.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 8048, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 8048, 115

Auto

25.2 21%

Teleop

66.3 55%

Endgame

28.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score303.5pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.7
Score range: 96–337
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 186.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.3Season APEX397.6

48.2Auto25.2

169.8Teleop66.3

76.2Endgame28.5

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	37
teleop	232	114
endgame	31	15
foul	5	5
total	352	171

Result

Final score

352 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Match videos

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