CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.79 – 120.07

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 83.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±9.9

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 81.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 100.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 102.8Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 0.27Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 47.35Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 72.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 668, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 668, 1868

Auto

45.7 16%

Teleop

161.7 57%

Endgame

78.1 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 6418, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 6418, 6962

Auto

23.5 22%

Teleop

62.6 59%

Endgame

20.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.8pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.7
Score range: 87–318
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 185.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX422.8

45.7Auto23.5

161.7Teleop62.6

78.1Endgame20.3

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	49
teleop	105	132
endgame	75	38
foul	5	10
total	227	229

Result

Final score

227 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 83.4 pts

Match videos

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