CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

591.26 – 78.02

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

667 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 999.3 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 10.35Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 357.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 223.47Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±11

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 29.57Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 33.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 15.26Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 254, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

591.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 254, 9470

Auto

118.6 20%

Teleop

324.4 56%

Endgame

137.9 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 1671, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 1671, 2643

Auto

16.9 24%

Teleop

40.7 59%

Endgame

11.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score591.3pts

Blue projected score78pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 513.2
Score range: 45–624
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 761 vs event baseline 183.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

999.3Season APEX419.2

118.6Auto16.9

324.4Teleop40.7

137.9Endgame11.9

15Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	148	17
teleop	367	31
endgame	147	31
foul	5	15
total	667	94

Result

Final score

667 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Match videos

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