CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.83 – 164.99

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.3 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 27.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 142.21Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 152.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 14.98Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 62.66Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 87.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 3256, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3256, 581

Auto

63.0 20%

Teleop

177.0 56%

Endgame

73.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 6418, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 6418, 6962

Auto

31.6 20%

Teleop

90.1 58%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score321.8pts

Blue projected score165pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.8
Score range: 130–357
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 194.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.3Season APEX422.8

63Auto31.6

177Teleop90.1

73.9Endgame34.3

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	51
teleop	239	80
endgame	96	50
foul	10	5
total	428	186

Result

Final score

428 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Match videos

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