CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.66 – 158.53

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.9 ±11.1

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 33.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 124.88Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 5.72Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 13.05Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 60.55Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 84.93Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1351, 5026, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 5026, 5499

Auto

26.2 17%

Teleop

94.7 62%

Endgame

32.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 6418, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 6418, 6962

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

87.3 59%

Endgame

30.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.7pts

Blue projected score158.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 124–199
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 194.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.9Season APEX422.8

26.2Auto30.4

94.7Teleop87.3

32.2Endgame30.6

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	62	109
endgame	13	60
foul	0	0
total	112	209

Result

Final score

112 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 pts

Match videos

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