CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

625.99 – 325.25

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 999.3 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 23.07Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 369.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 233.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.3 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 143.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 153.34Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 254, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

626 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 254, 9470

Auto

128.0 21%

Teleop

346.8 56%

Endgame

142.0 23%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4990, 3256, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3256, 581

Auto

60.9 19%

Teleop

181.0 57%

Endgame

74.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score626pts

Blue projected score325.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 300.7
Score range: 290–661
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 192.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

999.3Season APEX694.3

128Auto60.9

346.8Teleop181

142Endgame74.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	76
teleop	224	146
endgame	73	64
foul	20	5
total	449	291

Result

Final score

449 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 pts

Match videos

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