CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.37 – 213.21

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.5 ±9.9

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 32.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 124.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 139.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.1 ±11.1

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 19.54Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 92.87Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 100.8Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1351, 5026, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 5026, 972

Auto

50.2 18%

Teleop

163.4 58%

Endgame

69.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6059, 668, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 668, 1868

Auto

25.9 12%

Teleop

120.3 57%

Endgame

64.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.4pts

Blue projected score213.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.2
Score range: 179–330
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.5Season APEX479.1

50.2Auto25.9

163.4Teleop120.3

69.6Endgame64.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	42
teleop	191	113
endgame	34	84
foul	30	5
total	288	244

Result

Final score

288 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Match videos

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