CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.56 – 141.96

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±12.8

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 62.03Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 36.68Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX -Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.7 ±11.6

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 114.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX -Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -0.46Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11247, 7528, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 7528, 6418

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

76.8 61%

Endgame

29.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1351, 1671, 2367

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 1671, 2367

Auto

22.3 16%

Teleop

93.1 65%

Endgame

27.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.4
Score range: 97–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.5Season APEX395.7

12.2Auto14

62.9Teleop79.2

23.6Endgame22

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	16	30
endgame	0	9
foul	35	20
total	59	80

Result

Final score

59 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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