CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80 – 102.77

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±10.5

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 34.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 41.14Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±12.1

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.81Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 58.1Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 34.86Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 100, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 100, 6238

Auto

9.7 12%

Teleop

50.9 65%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 2854, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 2854, 668

Auto

8.1 8%

Teleop

65.4 66%

Endgame

25.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80pts

Blue projected score102.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.8
Score range: 49–134
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.2Season APEX278.8

9.7Auto8.1

50.9Teleop65.4

18Endgame25.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	27
teleop	50	71
endgame	43	38
foul	10	10
total	116	146

Result

Final score

116 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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