CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.97 – 92.98

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.5 ±13.3

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 19.6Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -5.53Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 2.9Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±11.6

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 44.15Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 1.25Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 47.58Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10372, 2367, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

17 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 2367, 10644

Auto

3.9 29%

Teleop

-0.3 0%

Endgame

9.9 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 6822, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6418, 6822, 2854

Auto

3.8 5%

Teleop

61.2 75%

Endgame

16.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76
Score range: -16–126
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 184.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.5Season APEX327

3.9Auto3.8

-0.3Teleop61.2

9.9Endgame16.8

30Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	40
teleop	14	71
endgame	14	27
foul	0	0
total	45	138

Result

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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