CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.32 – 65.61

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.9 ±10.5

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 39.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 101.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 12.39Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.6 ±11.7

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 14.58Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 11.2Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 39.83Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 115, 6238, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 6238, 1854

Auto

25.4 16%

Teleop

93.0 59%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11247, 6665, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 6665, 1351

Auto

20.4 36%

Teleop

12.5 22%

Endgame

23.5 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score65.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.7
Score range: 33–186
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 185.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.9Season APEX315.6

25.4Auto20.4

93Teleop12.5

38.8Endgame23.5

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	29
teleop	69	17
endgame	35	6
foul	5	15
total	146	67

Result

Final score

146 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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