CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.43 – 273.89

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.9 ±11

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 3.7Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 30.9Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 102.83Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.1 ±10.7

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 70.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 211.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -8.72Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6814, 5419, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 5419, 668

Auto

27.2 20%

Teleop

66.3 49%

Endgame

40.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 9470, 8404

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 9470, 8404

Auto

63.2 23%

Teleop

144.7 54%

Endgame

62.3 23%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score273.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.5
Score range: 104–307
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 184.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.9Season APEX702.1

27.2Auto63.2

66.3Teleop144.7

40.8Endgame62.3

16Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	67
teleop	64	269
endgame	24	70
foul	0	15
total	119	421

Result

Final score

119 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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