CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.69 – 209.67

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.1 ±10.5

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 138.23Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.39Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 17.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±10.5

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 108.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 79.57Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 21.2Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 1700, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 581, 1700, 4990

Auto

27.7 18%

Teleop

79.5 51%

Endgame

48.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 8048, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 8048, 2643

Auto

29.0 14%

Teleop

129.9 62%

Endgame

51.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.7pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: 132–243
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.1Season APEX543.7

27.7Auto29

79.5Teleop129.9

48.9Endgame51.5

34Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	42
teleop	148	43
endgame	39	27
foul	20	50
total	257	162

Result

Final score

257 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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