CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.59 – 153.33

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 86 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644 ±9.8

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 16.27Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 219.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 81.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±10.5

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 122.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 26.68Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 3.98Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6814, 9470, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 9470, 8048

Auto

61.1 20%

Teleop

177.6 57%

Endgame

71.1 23%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5026, 766, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 766, 6822

Auto

30.6 21%

Teleop

80.6 56%

Endgame

33.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317.6pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.3
Score range: 117–354
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644Season APEX484.5

61.1Auto30.6

177.6Teleop80.6

71.1Endgame33

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	27
teleop	139	5
endgame	47	15
foul	5	5
total	247	52

Result

Final score

247 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 86 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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