CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.03 – 3.78

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±11.7

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 37.11Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 8.48Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 95.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.5 ±13.3

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -9.02Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 4.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 8.64Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2854, 11247, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 11247, 6238

Auto

19.1 14%

Teleop

87.3 63%

Endgame

31.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8404, 10644, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8404, 10644, 5499

Auto

5.8 0%

Teleop

-14.5 100%

Endgame

7.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score3.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.3
Score range: -29–174
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.2Season APEX196.5

19.1Auto5.8

87.3Teleop-14.5

31.4Endgame7.1

26Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	155	3
endgame	58	0
foul	0	0
total	245	21

Result

Final score

245 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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