CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.13 – 154.48

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±11.1

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 11.09Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 66.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 18.63Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 17.85Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 49.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 87.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1854, 2813, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1854, 2813, 2643

Auto

20.7 21%

Teleop

67.4 67%

Endgame

12.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 115, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 115, 8048

Auto

22.6 15%

Teleop

90.7 60%

Endgame

36.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score154.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.3
Score range: 63–187
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.2Season APEX397.6

20.7Auto22.6

67.4Teleop90.7

12.8Endgame36.9

0Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	28
teleop	101	23
endgame	30	23
foul	5	5
total	160	79

Result

Final score

160 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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