CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.96 – 266.76

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.9 ±11

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 34.34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 43.76Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 29.86Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.9 ±11.2

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 24.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 215.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 26.41Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 100, 6418, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 6418, 766

Auto

26.2 28%

Teleop

54.6 58%

Endgame

13.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4990, 9470, 10372

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 9470, 10372

Auto

37.9 15%

Teleop

145.4 56%

Endgame

74.7 29%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108pts

Blue projected score266.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.8
Score range: 75–300
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.9Season APEX526.9

26.2Auto37.9

54.6Teleop145.4

13.2Endgame74.7

6Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	56
teleop	67	71
endgame	34	62
foul	0	35
total	143	224

Result

Final score

143 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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