CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

416.67 – 209.07

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.5 ±10.5

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 14.69Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 22.39Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 379.59Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.1 ±9.8

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 144.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 32.04Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 32.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2367, 6814, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2367, 6814, 254

Auto

86.5 21%

Teleop

243.4 59%

Endgame

82.6 20%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 972, 1967, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 972, 1967, 1671

Auto

32.5 16%

Teleop

109.4 54%

Endgame

60.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score416.7pts

Blue projected score209.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.6
Score range: 176–450
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.5Season APEX638.1

86.5Auto32.5

243.4Teleop109.4

82.6Endgame60.6

48Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	75	123
endgame	99	38
foul	15	10
total	211	195

Result

Final score

211 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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