CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.1 – 161.61

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 399

Prediction missed · off by 124.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.6 ±11.1

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 99.23Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 34.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 112.18Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.8 ±10.5

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 54.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -2.47Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 109.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 1351, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 1351, 1868

Auto

35.6 15%

Teleop

130.8 54%

Endgame

75.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6962, 6059, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6962, 6059, 3256

Auto

30.8 19%

Teleop

98.5 62%

Endgame

30.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.1pts

Blue projected score161.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.5
Score range: 130–278
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 179.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.6Season APEX540.8

35.6Auto30.8

130.8Teleop98.5

75.4Endgame30.5

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	52
teleop	115	246
endgame	79	81
foul	15	20
total	258	399

Result

Final score

258 – 399

Prediction missed · off by 124.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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