CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.03 – 198.25

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 566.8 ±9.3

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 8.03Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 27.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 132.89Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.2 ±11.2

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 30.33Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 34.65Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 133.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 7607, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 7607, 5026

Auto

50.4 29%

Teleop

85.3 50%

Endgame

35.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 7528, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 7528, 581

Auto

44.9 24%

Teleop

96.6 52%

Endgame

45.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168pts

Blue projected score198.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 136–230
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 179.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

566.8Season APEX532.2

50.4Auto44.9

85.3Teleop96.6

35.7Endgame45.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	50
teleop	69	130
endgame	64	64
foul	5	5
total	155	249

Result

Final score

155 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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