CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.8 – 80.16

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594.5 ±10.5

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 1.05Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 25.87Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 209.88Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.8 ±11.7

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -1Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 84.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -3.47Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5499, 766, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 766, 9470

Auto

51.1 22%

Teleop

119.0 51%

Endgame

61.0 26%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10644, 6238, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10644, 6238, 6822

Auto

9.6 13%

Teleop

45.2 61%

Endgame

19.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.8pts

Blue projected score80.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.6
Score range: 48–269
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 178.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594.5Season APEX402.8

51.1Auto9.6

119Teleop45.2

61Endgame19.4

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	14
teleop	191	86
endgame	82	59
foul	0	5
total	330	164

Result

Final score

330 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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