CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.66 – 69.58

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.1 ±10.4

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 32.16Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 21.85Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 24.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.1 ±13.3

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 34.58Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 11.96Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.04Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1671, 6814, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1671, 6814, 4990

Auto

0.2 0%

Teleop

36.0 51%

Endgame

33.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10372, 11247, 1700

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 11247, 1700

Auto

13.1 23%

Teleop

22.0 39%

Endgame

21.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 38–111
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.1Season APEX201.1

0.2Auto13.1

36Teleop22

33.8Endgame21.6

43Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	3
teleop	53	9
endgame	15	7
foul	0	0
total	83	19

Result

Final score

83 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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