CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.59 – 115.34

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.6 ±12.7

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 2.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 105.36Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -1.65Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±11.6

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 35.42Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 45.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 33.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6059, 668, 8404

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 668, 8404

Auto

11.3 11%

Teleop

48.7 48%

Endgame

41.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1351, 115, 100

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 115, 100

Auto

26.8 26%

Teleop

48.8 47%

Endgame

27.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.6pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.7
Score range: 74–148
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.6Season APEX330.7

11.3Auto26.8

48.7Teleop48.8

41.3Endgame27.2

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	19
teleop	23	66
endgame	10	18
foul	5	20
total	44	123

Result

Final score

44 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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