CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.83 – 201.92

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.1 ±12.2

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 25.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 23.53Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 5.21Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661 ±10.7

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 21.3Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 103.23Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 77.39Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 2643, 8404

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 2643, 8404

Auto

16.5 36%

Teleop

19.9 43%

Endgame

9.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10372, 1868, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 1868, 2813

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

112.1 57%

Endgame

51.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.8pts

Blue projected score201.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.1
Score range: 18–238
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.1Season APEX661

16.5Auto34.4

19.9Teleop112.1

9.5Endgame51.6

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	30
teleop	22	138
endgame	12	64
foul	5	5
total	43	237

Result

Final score

43 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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