CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.31 – 94.28

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 903.6 ±8.7

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 129.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 105.58Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 107.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.1 ±10.5

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 44.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 37.99Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 11.72Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 1868, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 1868, 3256

Auto

63.6 18%

Teleop

208.7 60%

Endgame

77.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 1967, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 1967, 6665

Auto

22.5 23%

Teleop

62.0 64%

Endgame

12.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score342.3pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 248
Score range: 61–375
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

903.6Season APEX427.1

63.6Auto22.5

208.7Teleop62

77.1Endgame12.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	14
teleop	227	6
endgame	97	10
foul	0	30
total	384	60

Result

Final score

384 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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