CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

520.36 – 85.02

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.6 ±9.8

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 389.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 93.34Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 37.8Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.8 ±11.7

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 58.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 1.49Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 24.89Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 8048, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 254, 8048, 7607

Auto

83.5 16%

Teleop

303.3 59%

Endgame

126.0 25%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 2367, 7528

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 2367, 7528

Auto

30.4 36%

Teleop

43.4 52%

Endgame

9.5 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score520.4pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 435.3
Score range: 53–552
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 623 vs event baseline 179.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.6Season APEX406.8

83.5Auto30.4

303.3Teleop43.4

126Endgame9.5

23Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	14
teleop	233	124
endgame	74	50
foul	0	0
total	435	188

Result

Final score

435 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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