CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.44 – 153.21

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±11.1

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 151.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 6.04Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.8 ±10.4

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 36.8Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 63.17Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 53.24Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2643, 972, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 972, 5499

Auto

21.7 12%

Teleop

103.4 58%

Endgame

52.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 6962, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 6962, 6418

Auto

33.3 24%

Teleop

81.7 59%

Endgame

23.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score153.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 121–211
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.2Season APEX444.8

21.7Auto33.3

103.4Teleop81.7

52.2Endgame23.5

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	36
teleop	60	33
endgame	41	16
foul	0	5
total	121	90

Result

Final score

121 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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