CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.89 – 193.34

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.9 ±11.1

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 26.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 203.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -9.36Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.3 ±10.5

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 137.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 14.9Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 40.84Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 100, 9470, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 9470, 6822

Auto

45.1 21%

Teleop

114.8 53%

Endgame

55.0 26%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 581, 1854, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 581, 1854, 1671

Auto

31.1 17%

Teleop

106.5 57%

Endgame

50.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.9pts

Blue projected score193.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 161–253
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.9Season APEX679.3

45.1Auto31.1

114.8Teleop106.5

55Endgame50.7

13Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	36
teleop	146	63
endgame	41	37
foul	30	5
total	282	141

Result

Final score

282 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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