CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.85 – 137.57

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.3 ±11.2

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 14.96Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 111.54Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 42.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.2 ±11.1

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -5Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 125.42Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 17.15Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11247, 1868, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 1868, 1967

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

92.5 55%

Endgame

46.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6059, 5026, 1700

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 5026, 1700

Auto

29.9 22%

Teleop

77.1 57%

Endgame

27.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 106–201
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.3Season APEX452.2

28.5Auto29.9

92.5Teleop77.1

46.1Endgame27.9

9Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	10
teleop	70	135
endgame	39	57
foul	0	0
total	141	202

Result

Final score

141 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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