CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.35 – 137.15

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±10.5

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 96.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 32.42Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±11

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 21.28Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 26.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 89.02Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3256, 7607, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3256, 7607, 2854

Auto

26.5 17%

Teleop

90.3 59%

Endgame

35.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 766, 1351, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 1351, 8048

Auto

18.4 14%

Teleop

81.4 63%

Endgame

30.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.4pts

Blue projected score137.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 105–183
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.7Season APEX377.9

26.5Auto18.4

90.3Teleop81.4

35.5Endgame30.1

38Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	40
teleop	193	64
endgame	26	62
foul	0	25
total	274	191

Result

Final score

274 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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