CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.57 – 98.98

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±11.2

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 29.09Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 11.99Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 26.49Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.7 ±11.2

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 52.61Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -7.63Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7528, 6665, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7528, 6665, 6814

Auto

30.7 48%

Teleop

29.8 47%

Endgame

3.5 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 2813, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6418, 2813, 10644

Auto

19.2 21%

Teleop

52.2 57%

Endgame

19.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.6pts

Blue projected score99pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.4
Score range: 35–132
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.4Season APEX491.7

30.7Auto19.2

29.8Teleop52.2

3.5Endgame19.6

13Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	29
teleop	20	88
endgame	18	10
foul	5	0
total	59	127

Result

Final score

59 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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